Polymarket was set up by Thiel to manipulate perception on election. Don't arbitrage it's overly high Trump prediction because he won't pay out for Kamala.
I believe it's all web3 smart contracts so they don't have the option to not pay out. They have an 'oracle' call the bets. Vitalik Buterin is an investor so I'm guessing the tech works.
You can actually get your money back at any point by selling in the market - I bailed on my Kamala bet when the results started coming in.
Aside from gambling being iffy I'm quite impressed they've actually got the tech to work quite smoothly. There was talk of oracles and smart contracts for years and it never really worked much but this seems to be quite fast, cheap and secure.
