>But that sort of outcome seems almost impossible in America today
Then you don't know enough about how well, for example, African and central Asian refugees or immigrants do in a single generation. Same for Hispanic immigrants within a generation or two.
I mean … does it count if there was a (short) civil war when I was 4? Or that my country went from communist dictatorship to EU member in the first 17 years of my life?
“Bad” is extremely relative. Some of my good friends were actively getting bombed by USA just 600km south of my city when I was in high school. That’s like living in SF with an active warzone in LA, if they were in different countries ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
To me, absolutely. To people of a different political persuasion, it's dependent on the color of your skin and how many political points can be scored on the basis of your relative suffering compared to those that are not coming from predominantly "white, European" countries (regardless of how white they may actually be), not the facts of your circumstance.
The plight of a progressive Nigerian immigrant whose family was extremely wealthy prior to immigration is worth more than your story in today's climate.
This is a funny example of something I think crypto maxis completely fail to account for.
They genuinely believe that fiat will "go to 0", but have put zero though into what the state of the internet or connectivity will be in a world where the USD is worthless. What use is the blockchain if you can't access it?
Yup, the amount of actual wealth in the crypto space is, in my estimation, less than 10% of what it's touted to be. Maxis are "true believers" but they're a hyper minority compared to the speculative crypto bros trying to rope in greater fools.
Be careful, methicillin (and generally speaking, antibiotic) resistance are very different, both mechanistically as well as evolutionarily, from vaccine immunity evasion.
This is just introductory-level microbiology and immunology and I don’t have time to give the subject the treatment it deserves.
First, as a practical matter, small molecules like antibiotics are really difficult to develop, the repertoire is limited, and toxicity is often a big problem. The possible repertoire of antibodies against a given antigen is astronomical.
In the case of antibiotic resistance, you’re dealing with an active colony of bacteria continually reproducing within one host. In vaccine immunity, reproduction is nil or extremely limited within the host (simplifying white lie), and it is mostly at the host-population level that immune evasion evolves over time, so the population dynamics are totally different.
Edit: I recommend Lange’s Medical Microbiology and Janeway’s Immunobiology for those who are interested enough in learning more.
VAED is not specific to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, and is the exception rather than the norm.
In fact, VAED typically occurs more often in inactivated vaccines, while in comparison, newer mRNA vaccines offer a promising way to reduce the likelihood of VAED.
To the best of my knowledge, though it cannot be ruled out as a possibility, there are no confirmed reports of VAED in humans infected with SARS-CoV-2. You're really splitting hairs and assigning excessive importance on minor details.
VAED has occurred repeatedly in mRNA vaccine trials, as well as attempts to develop a coronavirus vaccine because the vaccines provide incomplete protection, in much the same way the current COVID vaccines. It's a primary factor in why they have not made it to market for so long.
No, lol. I would strongly suggest you stop talking about things you know nothing about.
- The first 3 links have nothing to do with RNA vaccines
- The fourth link says "the ability of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies to mediate infection enhancement in vivo has never been formally demonstrated", and "the results obtained so far have been rather reassuring", which is in agreement with what I said and in direct contradiction with your point.
- The fifth link doesn't suggest in any way that VAED is a concern with mRNA vaccines. In fact it says: "Any vaccine that has been found to cause ADE has stopped being used or, more recently as described below for dengue vaccine, been recommended only for those who will not be affected by ADE. Evidence of ADE has not emerged for COVID-19 vaccines even though concerns have been raised."
Vaccinated individuals have shorter infections and a lower viral load than unvaccinated people, and therefore provide less opportunities to develop new variants. More virus = more chance for new mutations.
The more likely theory is someone immunocompromised who stayed sick for a very long time.
The theory is that it would be someone that is immunocompromised enough to just hang in there for a long time. It's a numbers game. The more people that get infected, the bigger the chance a rare event like this will happen.
This is one reason why vaccine distribution inequity may come back to bite us.
It's pretty simple. You can estimate the genetic mutation rate from the phylogenetic tree since we've been sampling the distribution of Sars-Cov2 genomes since the original Wuhan strain. If that rate is constant and if the variants all mutate at the same speed that gives you a rough timeline. Omicron has 50 mutations that are not related to other known variants. Delta has 13. We've seen delta for about 1 year right? So it's not a big leap to roughly double that estimate for Omicron.
Immunocompromised subpopulation is so small (at least in my country), especially compared to unvaccinated (abt. 30%), that it should be fairly trivial to quarantine them, don't really see an issue here if we are restricting unvaccinated life based on argument about public health.
It makes zero sense for an immunocomprised person to apply selective pressure to the virus that results in several mutations that perfectly evade the vaccines mechanism of action.
The experts interviewed in the article the OP posted all agree that a persistent infection in an imunocompromised individual is one of the leading theories. Maybe even more plausible than a reverse zoonotic event.
People with a compromised immune system are a good setting for evolving new variante of coronavirus. They stay sick for a long time (meaning more viral replication and more opportunities for mutation) and they apply a weak immune response which while not sufficient to wipe out the disease, provides selective pressure that rewards immune evasion.
There's a common antivaxxer myth that vaccines promote the creation of new variants and that we would be better off without vaccination. I think it's very important to emphasize that is not the case.
> a persistent infection in an imunocompromised individual is one of the most plausible theories
> People with a compromised immune system are a good setting for evolving new variante of coronavirus
If it turns out to be the case, should we have HIV / Cancer Patient Passports? After all, these people can be a general danger to public health as they can demonstrably incubate new dangerous strains of diseases, like Omicron.
Of course not! Please don't suggest that I would say such a heartless thing! We're talking about someone who had to be sick for months, probably inside a hospital already.
The important thing to do is get everyone vaccinated, including in Africa where there is a tremendous shortage of vaccines. The more the virus spreads, the more chances it has to mutate into new variants. Also, when everyone is vaccinated, the elderly and immunocompromised are less likely to be exposed to the disease; vaccination should be seen first as a public-health policy, not as a means for individual protection. Not to mention that, even though the vaccination is less effective individually for the immunocompromised, they are one of the groups that are at most risk from covid and therefore most benefit from being vaccinated.
> vaccination is less effective individually for the immunocompromised
> People with a compromised immune system are a good setting for evolving new variants of coronavirus
> They stay sick for a long time (meaning more viral replication and more opportunities for mutation) and they apply a weak immune response which while not sufficient to wipe out the disease, provides selective pressure that rewards immune evasion.
If what you say is true about immunocompromised people I fail to see a public health argument against their quarantine and certification via passports. We already restrict a much larger and healthier subpopulation (the unvaccinated) so restricting this smaller and disproportionately more dangerous one does seem quite obvious to me, based on public health. And as you say, these people are most likely already hospitalized so quarantine procedures should be fairly easy to implement and follow.
I highly doubt it. The strain that would be placed on power plants and grids that will come with EV proliferation is not discussed enough. It's going to require significant, costly, and time consuming infrastructure upgrades.
There is no empirical evidence that wildfire frequency or intensity has deviated from historical norms, particularly when controlling for confounding variables like overgrowth and patterns of land management over time, due to greenhouse gases.
On the contrary, it's directly correlated with reverting good land and brush management practices.
Then you don't know enough about how well, for example, African and central Asian refugees or immigrants do in a single generation. Same for Hispanic immigrants within a generation or two.