To add to this point, AI is lagging in the debugging chain. It's great at generating code but who is going to inherit the maintenance of all this code and show confidence in its maintenance? Most developers already works on the maintenance side, writing a handful of line of code per week, spending most time in meeting, reading code, writing a small modification, doing all sort of manual operation, testing it, waiting for the test to complete, etc. More so, the whole Agile/Scrum movement encouraged to sort of micro-modification approach. You can't just drop an AI in place of those developers.
This might be the only way I could have any trust in Nuclear. I heard recently from a journalist that the Fukushima plant paid Yakuza owned newspapers to avoid negative press well before the incident. The technology is great, humans are not.
The snipping tool in Windows 11 can already record videos. I just copied the result and then pasted it in Telegram, it worked great and can handle more than 256 colors. I guess having gif support for those who need it is better than not having it, but I don't see why it would be better than the current video format.
I don't even know which format they use at the moment when copying to the clipboard, but when saving as a file it's saved as an mp4 file using aac for audio and h.264 for video.
Sounds a bit like the old Problem Steps Recorder (PSR) tool in Windows. It was a little known tool that recorded keystrokes/clicks/screenshots, which was great for troubleshooting.
Sadly, the screenshots were all lossy jpegs, and it wrapped the whole thing into an mhtml file.
We upgrated about 400 computers to 24H2 in the last two months and it wasn't too much of an issue. It's largely the same OS underneath. In term of UI, the only improvement is tabbed file explorer (but some might not like it). Other UI change are for the worse (worse task bar, can't make it bigger, notifications only show part of the message (and you can't get the full message even by clicking, more stuff moved to the problematic settings menu, etc).
A few months ago, there was an op-ed in the NY Times that said RFK was wrong to say x% of people are diabetics. But RFK mentionned explicitly x% are "diabetics and pre-diabetics" people. While I can't verify if the number is correct, it was obvious the NY Times was misquoting RFK.
There is certainly a usefulness in separating government spending and private spending in our economic health measures. For one, measures like GDP are often used to evaluate the confidence and the general well-being of our economy. High Government spending tend to indicate the opposite, as Keynesian economics would mandate. More so, it invite manupulation of those measures by politicians, who can increase deficits to boost their "success". When it comes to spending like Education, those should be fairly constant relative to the population, in a developed country. We also have other mechanics to discuss their health status since they are largely public funded and subject to political debate. Perhaps a good measure would be the GDP minus public deficit minus credit card debt increase.
The whole point of using economic metrics like GDP is that they are NOT politicized. You can argue to what extent that succeeded. Probably not 100%.
But your suggestion is to increase politicization of GDP: change the figure to push a certain view on economic activity, as opposed to what the theory says, what's practical, and what actually happens in real life (even if the government pays a group of people to dig a hole, and another group to fill the hole back up, that's still economic activity and should be counted).
That's moving things entirely in the wrong direction.
Given that we print dollars and other countries demand on dollars make that ok for now -> We can make bricks out of the paper money and call that GDP. More money brick factory jobs!
No doubt Lutnick and Bessent are taking crazy risks with their strategy. If they are to be believed, their plan is to have a recession at the begining of the term to get long term bond price lower and refinance the debt. By their own account, they outright said to Trump things aren't going to be good until 2028. So, I guess we have to prepare for a few years of crap. Let's hope it doesn't trigger a depression that would need government bailout to save the economy.
What’s worrisome is, if they’re planning on things to suck until 2028, that is precisely when the next presidential election is supposed to happen. Suppose he feels like he must have 4 more years, to take credit for the V-shaped recovery, and not go out like a loser? Suppose he declines to step down?
The recent Civil War movie had the president serving a 3rd term leading to 19 states seceding. How would the blue states respond to Trump ignoring the 22nd amendment?
As a general rule, with some exceptions of course, Democrat politicians tend to "roll over and take it". If the Supreme Court rules that Trump is the president from 2028-2032, expect blue state leaders to just go "oh ok" and then accept that he is the president.
You can contrast it with what red states would do if Obama had a third term.
FWIW, that is 100% a retconned explanation. No one anywhere was talking about this theory until the last week.
It's clear that Trump demanded tariffs, tried to do it once early, and got cold feet. What happened with Lutnick et. al. is Court Politics. They saw an opening to improve their own status by selling a creative lie that would allow Trump to do what he wants. So he bought the lie and picked new favorites.
But it remains a lie. No one serious thinks that this is a good idea.
Also: refinance the debt?! First, no, that's not how federal bonds work. They're a contract and you pay the interest it says on the note. But even if you had a magic money pool around to do buybacks or whatever... most of the outstanding debt is in 30 year notes at like 3%! How low do you think they're going to get the Fed to go?
I think at least some of them are also true believers. The administration is full of people that have their own extreme ideas on how the world should work and now they have the chance to try them.
Right, that's the amount issued in short term bonds and whatnot. It cycles all the time. But again: it's maturing. You don't need to "refinance it", for the same reason you don't refinance a mortgage with only $6k principle left. There's no point, just pay it off and work on a new loan.
So the question becomes "can we get better rates for bonds?". And clearly the answer is hell no, because nothing in this mess makes US debt look more attractive to foreign investors. We're moving in the opposite direction from the way the cult expects things to go.
These aren't people who care about the national debt. Trump has not only stated, but bragged publicly, that he does what he can to pay as little in tax as possible. He's had an appeal in front of the IRS for probably over a decade now for writing down the value of a business loss (the casino in Atlantic City, IIRC) that he received monetary gain from.
That's not what you do when you see a financial issue as a threat to the nation you supposedly love. They are too short-sighted to have a strategy.
If there's a depression or major recession, I don't think the government bailout would be the main concern. Civil unrest would be. I'm in my early 30s and I've seen four major financial crises (2002, 2008, 2020, and now 2025) in my lifetime. I'm doing alright because I come from a place of privilege. There are literally millions of people my age who aren't going to be doing alright in the situation you describe, and there's a good chance they would see that as the death knell of their hopes and dreams, all because of the shareholder and political classes in this country.
I don't expect less demand for people mastering technology, considering AI will only increase the amount of it. What we should expect is that the balance between the number of people required to create a new product compared the the amount of people to maintain it will change dramatically. Sucessful startup are going to be composed of smaller teams. On the other end, legacy code is going to require army of people to deal with.
