The visuals weren't terrible, I thought, but the writing, dialog, acting (except for Moura), and narrative arc were terrible.
It's one of those movies where almost everyone looks like they just really love being on stage ("isn't cinema lovely?") and where the writers have an idea of what cliches they're trying to work with but can't land them into an actual story, even a story made out of cliches.
If it becomes commonplace for existing prediction markets to get undermined by this kind of manipulation, won't that just be an opportunity for people to create better prediction markets that are less vulnerable to manipulation?
And doesn't that just mean more resources and energy is going into solving the problem of determining the truth of past events (and, as a result given that these are prediction markets, the likelihood of future ones?)
If those prediction markets are patronised by people who want to manipulate it, what drives customers to the new ones?
Making it less vulnerable to manipulation would entail exposing less information too. You probably wouldn't be allowed to know the current odds, which makes gambling the same as reading tea leaves.
Both sports betting and prediction markets are effectively the same as reading tea leaves anyway. You can determine the real odds in roulette or blackjack because those are closed games that have simple probabilities, but any odds given in sports betting or prediction markets are just fancy guesses
The odds in betting are the payout ratio. To hinder manipulation, the payout ratio would have to be hidden and then the platform can just always say you won less money than you did.
It's wild that there are as many jobs in the category "Top Executives" as in the category "Retail Sales Worker".
This makes sense given both automation and the US's role in the global economy, but it runs somewhat contrary to standard ideas of class and inequality.
That category has a median pay of $105,350, and includes "general and operations managers" as well as "chief executives". I assume it includes executives of very small enterprises.
Good point. To take it one step further, if they are including 'general managers' and 'operations managers' in this bucket, then that should include the GM and Ops Manager at places like retail stores as well (for example, every Best Buy location has both positions, I'm sure it's similar for Walmart and other big box retailers too).
Remember that exec tech salaries are extreme outliers. I worked for an exec in manufacturing. He had full p&l responsibility for a business segment with ~150 employees, $27 million in revenue at 40% gross margins, and a production plant. His total comp was ~$300k.
Now just think of the comp levels in sectors like government, education, etc.
> Remember that exec tech salaries are extreme outliers.
It's the combination of tech and big or fast growing companies.
People who operate in FAANG or Silicon Valley bubbles (or who spend too much time on Blind) can lose track of what salaries look like in the rest of the world.
I often share Buffer's open salary page because their compensation is actually pretty normal from all of the data I've seen and hiring I've done: https://buffer.com/salaries
Every time it gets posted there are comments from people aghast that the software engineers "only" make $200K and in disbelief that the CEO's salary is "only" $300K.
These categories are extremely broad. Top Executive includes general managers, legislators, school superintendents, mayors, city administrators, and a lot of other government jobs. The name is misleading, it's basically non-frontline management.
Chief Executives is actually a specific sub-category of it and is, obviously, much smaller.
When people think "top executives" they think of a very, very small group of people making tens of millions of dollars a year or much more. The reality is that that's not the case.
Whether they participate voluntarily in a commercial transaction or participate only when compelled to by law (setting aside the question of whether the government does or should have that power) is certainly their call to make.
Just as any individual can decide whether to volunteer, whether to wait until drafted, or whether to refuse to be drafted and face the consequences.
(History shows these decisions, and the rights to make them, are meaningful at scale!)
Finally, governments who expect their leading scientists to do groundbreaking work simply out of fear of imprisonment are NGMI against governments whose scientists believe in their cause.
Isn't insider trading on a prediction market only wrong to the extent the insider is violating some duty of secrecy to the company?
And isn't that just between them and their company in a case-by-case sense?
If there was some valuable-to-the-public information that the company did not care about keeping private but just hadn't bothered to make public, for whatever reason, and an insider traded on it on a prediction market, that would only benefit the public's interest in information and would not violate any duty to the company. It'd be a pure win for everyone.
It seems unfair to other traders, the way it would be in the stock market, but in prediction markets (unlike the stock market) all participants are explicitly taking on the risk that somebody else might have better access to information than they do. So it's not subverting the system in the way we have decided it does in stock markets.
A lot of commenters are getting the wrong take here by looking at this like it's a stock market where there is some society-level interest in giving participants protection from having less information than insiders. It's just a different thing.
The thing is you're still thinking of these insiders as someone who just got a juicy stock tip from a relative.
The much more serious problem is when these insiders actually have their hands on the levers which decide the outcome. It's really no different than a mobster who bets a bunch on money on an unlikely outcome then threatens one side to throw the match.
What possible economic benefit is there to society to allow ordinary people to bet in markets like that?
Would you really like to live in a world where "Will we nuke Iran?" Is a bet you can make? Then someone in government sees how much money they could make if they bet yes & push the button?
This is the entire idea behind the concept of "assassination markets" - "prediction" markets on assassinations that are just thinly veiled ways to crowdsource murders by taking bets that you expect to lose against an "insider" (the killer).
It doesn’t need to be as high stakes as assassination. Any public figure could have a free-money loophole with all the stupid bets on things like whether a certain word would appear in a speech.
If I were famous I could start a pool betting on whether I would post a picture of a my lunch this week. I could stake whichever side has the biggest payout and then just make it happen
And we already have laws against this stuff when it is traditional gambling. For example, a couple MLB players[1] are currently facing 65 years in prison because they would occasionally waste a pitch at the directions of gamblers netting them a few thousand dollars each time they did it. For those not familiar with baseball, a starting pitcher generally throws between 80-100 pitches a game and a reliever throws roughly 10-30. This is basically as low stakes as a sports bet can get, so it makes it all the more attractive to attempt because it feels less like a compromising of morals with the less the participant actually needs to sacrifice.
These prediction markets are now giving even more people the opportunity to make a small ethical compromise in exchange for non-trivial amounts of money without any of the potential legal repercussions of traditional markets or gambling. That type of ubiquitous corrupting influence can't be good for the health of society.
> Isn't insider trading on a prediction market only wrong to the extent the insider is violating some duty of secrecy to the company?
Yes.
Prediction markets, for corruption reasons, are regulated by the CFTC. In commodities markets, actors are assumed to be making trades based on propriety information. Hedging is the whole purpose!
> …like it's a stock market where there is some society-level interest in giving participants protection from having less information than insiders.
Ah, no!
Insider trading in the stock market is (usually) only illegal in your first case: when the person trading is violating confidentiality.
It is not about fairness.
Fairness is a poor proxy for whether specific trading is illegal.
For example:
If a company accidentally leaves a press release for a merger publicly available, I happen to guess the URL, and then I trade on it: Unfair (I have access to insider information that other market participants do not) but legal!
If I work at the company, am sent the press release to copy edit, and then trade on it: Illegal. I have a duty to the company not to trade on it.
Okay, then imagine you overhear at a bar. Yes “anyone could have” theoretically, but not actually. In either case, you have material non-public information that your counterparty in the market does not.
you got that piece of non public information was not because you are an insider. As long as the bar is not exclusive to insider, i don't see any difference
Isn't it exclusive to people who live in the area of the bar?
What if the bar has a cover charge, so only those who pay get in?
What if the cover charge is $10,000 and the bar is advertised as "the place where public company execs love to come talk to each other about private deals"?
Your comment seems to imply that trading based on material non-public information in prediction markets is always okay, which is not the case. The CFTC just made a press release detailing some instances of invalid use of nonpublic information on prediction markets: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26
Interestingly, the CFTC objects to a political candidate trading on their own candidacy on the grounds that it is fraudulent. So it looks like they could attempt to regulate self-trading quite strictly, at least if that theory holds up after a court challenge.
>> If a company accidentally leaves a press release for a merger publicly available, I happen to guess the URL, and then I trade on it: Unfair (I have access to insider information that other market participants do not) but legal!
Not necessarily. Just because you accidentally left your S3 bucket open and I brute force my way to the link by guessing doesn’t make it legal. It can still be insider information. Insider information is not limited to people who have a duty to the company. If I break into the companies office and steal information and trade on it then it can be insider trading.
In theory maybe, but in practice companies almost always do care about keeping things like release timing, product status or leadership decisions confidential. Even if they haven't publicly announced a policy about prediction markets specifically, it's usually covered under general confidentiality and acceptable use policies
I think there is a society-level interest. It's very bad for the business environment if every employee of every company has monetary incentives to leak private information. It structurally encourages businesses to set up strict information silos where cross-team collaboration is hard no employee can ever be sure of the broader context of their work.
I’m probably overlooking something, but if you have insider info, you just bet on that info with certainty. Why would you need to create a different outcome to bet on it?
If I know my company is going to do something on March 16th, I can bet against it happening until that day, and then bet big it will happen that day. I don’t need to influence the company to change what it’s going to do to make money on it.
The problem comes when there are lucrative odds for some unlikely scenario, which you can influence into realisation, and that outcome might be counter to the company's goals (i.e. sabotage)
That's not always true. Regulations increase the cost of transacting and make ranges of transactions non-viable, just like a tax.
So there is "dead weight loss", where transactions that would have been mutually beneficially and socially productive are eliminated by the regulation, and restored when somebody finds a loophole, restoring the individual and social benefit.
A reminder: Israel counts Hamas soldiers as military targets, even when they are out of uniform and in civilian life.
If we apply the civilized world's standards of war then yes, Israelis who are also off-duty soldiers or reservists don't count as military targets.
If we apply Israel's standards, however, they are.
Are Gazans not allowed to apply the same standards to their adversaries that their adversaries openly apply to them? Would you be this courteous, in their position?
Of the 378 people killed at and around Nova, 16 were off-duty soldiers attending the
rave and 4 were killed fighting [1]. That's 20 out of 378 ... so about 5%.
So even by the standard you're proposing, Hamas massacred around 358 people who
wouldn't qualify as military targets under anyone's rules of engagement. Including
theirs, apparently, since Hamas's own explanation was that they "may have thought"
the ravers were soldiers "resting"; i.e. they didn't know and killed them anyway.
The argument you've constructed requires Hamas to have been applying a targeting
framework. The evidence is that they found a large crowd of Israelis and opened fire.
Ah, so they'd only previously been members of the IDF?
Do you suppose Israel doesn't consider previous members of Hamas legitimate targets?
>The argument you've constructed requires Hamas to have been applying a targeting framework. The evidence is that they found a large crowd of Israelis and opened fire.
But that's effectively indistinguishable from the Israeli targeting framework where everyone connected to Hamas is a legitimate target.
This is settled in international humanitarian law. Per Human Rights Watch,
citing ICRC guidance: "reservists of national armed forces are considered
civilians except when they go on duty." [1] Off-duty at a music festival
unambiguously qualifies as not on duty.
The argument that prior military service permanently strips civilian status
has no basis in IHL. If it did, every Israeli who'd ever served (which is
nearly all of them, given conscription) would be a legitimate target forever.
So: not a targeting framework, more like a justification for killing the entire population.
On your second point: Israel's targeting decisions are also subject to IHL, and where they kill civilians unlawfully that's also a war crime. That's
not a defence of Hamas... it's the same standard applied consistently.
"They do it too" doesn't make either lawful.
For what it's worth, joining Hamas is a choice; IDF service is compulsory. The cases aren't analogous.
> This is settled in international humanitarian law
Neither participant in the Israel-Hamas conflict subscribes to that.
And I'm not really sure how you could expect the small resistance group to follow international humanitarian law when the big state they're fighting doesn't either? That seems absurd.
A wonderful quote that demonstrates how Israel applies different standards to itself: even its active duty combatants are painted as helpless innocents!
Israel has to apply that standard because Hamas operates without uniforms unlike IDF. So yeah, Gazans shouldn't apply the same standard because unlike them Israeli military operates in uniforms so it's easy to distinguish between them and civilians. That Gazans do the opposite is on them.
Sure, if that happens then it needs to be investigated as a potential war crime.
It still doesn't change the fact that Israel is in no position to apply that standard because fighting Gazans don't use uniforms. Obviously they will not treat people shooting at them and launching rockets at them as civilians.
It was standard practice by the police and DA in 2000s Massachusetts.
Neighbors were annoyed at loud college parties at the school I went to, so local police waited in bushes to catch people peeing in them, arrested them, and one of the charges was indecent exposure.
Happened to one person I knew personally so it must have happened to several others at just this school.
My friend plead out to some lower charge or probably got a continuance, but it massively increased the leverage they had over him and the fees and fines they could collect, and it massively lowered the chance of him doing any pushback that could have lead to a jury trial, which at least as far as he understood at the time would have put him on the registry, and which is why they abused the law and charged people this way.
Are you entitled to a jury trial for peeing in the bushes in the USA?
That isn’t the case here in Australia.
You can go to trial, but it will be a judge-only trial, and is typically conducted by the magistrate who saw you for your first appearance on the matter, in the magistrates court, which is the lowest court here.
I believe most of the colonies are approximately the same.
95% of cases are settled before reaching jury trial. Usually a plea bargain for criminal cases. Settlement for civil cases. Or dismissal. The other 5% are expensive.
Generally speaking, there are two levels of crime in the US; misdemeanors and felonies. Both will land you with a criminal record, but a misdemeanor-only record will not show up on some standard background checks and does not remove your right to bear arms or vote, for example. Felonies are much more serious, and generally mandate a minimum prison sentence of 1 year unless plead down, while the sentencing for misdemeanors generally caps out at a year and typically just gets reduced to fines and community service, or a short stint (e.g. a couple weeks) in the local jail instead of a prison.
In some states, first offense non-violent felony convictions (e.g. exceeding the speed limit while fleeing police in a vehicle) can be expunged from your record when you turn 21 (if you were convicted and served out your sentence before turning 21). Otherwise felonies generally stay with you for life.
We have civil offenses, the most common example would be minor traffic offense (speeding but not recklessly, etc). These were criminal at one time, but arresting people for minor speeding was deemed inappropriate.
Then we have misdemeanors - everything from reckless driving through basic assault (no injuries, no weapon). Usually/always <1 year in prison as the max punishment. Some financial crimes. Usually don't appear on basic background checks, but might on details checks (like when working for a bank or the government).
Then there are felonies - assault with a weapon, major financial crimes, etc. Typically >1 year prison sentences. As noted, these can impact your rights as a citizen and they will appear on most background checks.
As I mentioned in another comment, district attorneys frequently charge as many individual crimes as possible as a tactic to get cooperation/plea from the accused.
For example, you get pulled over for DUI/drink-driving. You're blotto, and you get out of your car and try to walk away. Police tackle you. The chargeable offenses would be at least...
- whatever initial infraction caused the traffic stop (speeding, swerving, whatever) - that was probably civil.
- The DUI - a misdemeanor unless it was excessive or a repeat offense
- "Fleeing and eluding" or equivalent for walking away - misdemeanor, usually.
- Assaulting a law enforcement officer (by forcing the police to tackle you) - automatic felony in many states.
The DA will often accept a guilty plea on everything up to the felony assault, or reduce the assault from "against a LEO" to normal assault (non-felony) to clear their plate.
No idea if this is common in the rest of the anglo-sphere, or anywhere else.
Unfortunately in the US we do in fact go so far as to criminalize urinating in public. It's weird to me that speeding (up to some limit) in a school zone is ranked below pissing in a shrub along the road.
After every time I read "save effort with Electron", I go back to Win2K VM and poke around things and realize how faster everything is than M4 Max, just because value is value, and Electron saves some effort.
