in fact US army publicly admitting running a disinformation campaign involving flying planes knowing they would be seen by osint in the previous Iran attack from last summer

occam doesn't work in financial markets.

because if it did you would print money by following occam.

But it does work in conspiracy theories which is what we have here.

the other side can and many times is an arbitrageour which has positions in both the prediction market and the real market

the betting markets offset positions with the real markets. it's all connected

> betting markets offset positions with the real markets

Need a strong source for this. The size (and regulatory) disconnect between the two would seem to make making markets in both a bit silly.

intentionally/unintentionally is not relevant.

it's legal to follow FBI cars and see who they raid so as to make trades. you could even have a hedge fund specialized on this. it's called alternative data

you can even be a regular employer of a public company and trade based on information sent on internal emails.

the only thing illegal is to be a designated insider - typically a restricted group of people with access to sensitive information

> you can even be a regular employer of a public company and trade based on information sent on internal emails

You absolutely cannot.

This interpretation is incredibly unlikely. The first and third paragraphs discuss legality, but the middle one was merely talking about likelihood of prosecution?

Even then it would be inaccurate: the regulators are not too stupid to put two and two together that you work for a company and got incredibly lucky with your trade

To be clear, I was responding about trading on internal communications, not specifically a raid. The practice of using internal communication to guide trading runs contrary to most company policies. I happen to have worked at a company where this kind of practice was both acknowledged and openly discussed. It was a strange place.

> the regulators are not too stupid to put two and two together that you work for a company and got incredibly lucky with your trade

You’re implying some specific combination of factors, but it’s not clear what you mean. What qualifies as "timing"? Around earnings, when trading volume is highest or just around some event? And what exactly counts as "lucky"?

Why would regulators scrutinize a sub-$25k purchase of my own company’s stock? That concern feels overstated. Granted, I’m not a lawyer. In practice I can place a trade at any time. If someone is routinely making $20k–$30k transactions, that alone is unlikely to trigger scrutiny.

The claim that you "absolutely cannot do this" is simply incorrect. I stand by that.

Looks like you're one of today's lucky 10,000* to learn that insider trading is very much illegal!

Here's a few examples: https://www.sec.gov/spotlight/insidertrading/cases.shtml

Some further advice on the matter: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-12/the-10-la...

10 Laws of Insider Trading

1. Don’t do it.

2. Don’t do it by buying short-dated out-of-the-money call options on merger targets.

3. Don’t text or email about it.

4. Don’t do it in your mother’s account.

5. Don’t do it by planting bombs at a company and shorting its stock.

6. Don’t do it while employed at the Securities and Exchange Commission.

7. Don’t Google “how to insider trade without getting caught” before doing it.

8. If you didn’t insider trade, don’t forget and accidentally confess to insider trading.

9. If you are going to insider trade, do it in a company that is far away from a Securities and Exchange Commission office. Like, physically.

10. If you are already under a federal ethics investigation about your ownership or promotion of a stock, don’t insider trade that stock.

* https://m.xkcd.com/1053/

> If someone is routinely making $20k–$30k transactions, that alone is unlikely to trigger scrutiny

If they never make money, you’re fine. If they make a lot of money, it will get flagged ex post facto. Regulators then check if you or your family have any affiliations with the issuer; if they do, it’s flagged further. All of this typically happens automatically after companies’ stock prices move significantly.