They want to see the CEO communicate a path to profitability. Anthropic has - purely by focusing.
OAI in contrast is all over the place and they haven’t shown they’ve learned.
Zuckerberg got punished for his metaverse nonsense and investors were correct to be skeptical and reflect that in the stock price. Altman thinks he’s a god and the rules don’t apply to him. More fool him.
I think it's hard to grasp just how much money he poured into this folly. $80 Billion. For an idea that any random person on the street could have torn apart. He read Ready Player 1 and decided that was what the future should be. Then he tried to make it. He ruined the Oculus brand and stole all the oxygen from other VR development just to make a lesser copy of our own world, but one where he could be admin.
Seattle just opened a new transit line, spanning from downtown Seattle to Bellevue. It's 33 miles long and cost $3.7 billion. It was already carrying 2 million people per year [0] even before the entire line was finished and on the opening day after completion it reached 200,000 riders.
Further from home, the entirety of the Artemis II program cost $93 billion [1] and lists an estimated $4 billion per launch.
One last example - the panama canal would cost an estimated $50 - $75 billion if you built it today. [2] The panama canal reshaped trade routes and the global economy.
Where is Meta's moon landing? Where is their impact? Zuckerberg spent enough money to build a new transit system for an entire city. Enough money to land astronauts on the moon. Enough to connect oceans together. He poured this money down a hole chasing his own vanity and a vision of the future that no one wanted.
How, after all that, did he get punished? He's still CEO. "Meta" is still overvalued. They're still regarded as a serious tech company.
> Zuckerberg got punished for his metaverse nonsense and investors were correct to be skeptical and reflect that in the stock price.
Did they? It's been a little less than 5 years since Zuckerburg announced the all-in plan on the metaverse. In that 5 year period, Meta's stock price has gone up by 84%... which is middle of the pack for MAGMA, less than Apple (91%) and Google (157%), but above Amazon (24%) and Microsoft (47%). It's also comfortably above the S&P 500 (59%).
Uber doesn't have to convert hundreds of millions of users to a paid plan - it was paid to begin with. Much easier to raise prices from a low base than to raise them from $0. When push came to shove, Uber also cut payments to drivers and replaced them with a tip screen. Is Nvidia going to accept tip annuities on ChatGPT responses instead of full payment on its chips?
Most importantly, Uber did not have fast-depreciating cars on its balance sheet - OAI meanwhile is planning to spend the GDP of a mid-size nation on owning fast-depreciating datacenters, which they deem necessary to cope with the demand for their services.
I think the IPO and subsequent quarterly earnings where they will be pressured by analysts will pop it all.
I was watching a recent Jensen Huang Q&A with analysts and it was essentially “just trust me bro”. They’re all interconnected - once there’s a correction for one player, all get affected.
Can’t wait to finally get this over with so we can finally move on.
The gap between hype and reality needs to be corrected.
We need to see the cash flows.
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