Polymarket has $5 million of wagers on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?"
The toll Iran charges for safe passage is $2 million per ship, and at current prices such a ship would be carrying about $200 million of oil. Oh, and we live in a world where a single billionaire will happily spend $200 million to influence politics.
The polymarket number merely shows that nobody's paid to make it higher or lower yet.
I don't know anything about Trusted Signing verification, but I do know from reports on 'mini umbrella company fraud' that if you're a fraudster, there are people in the Philippines who will happily sign their name to western countries' official paperwork in exchange for $2000 or so. Understandably, as that's more than the country's median annual income.
So I can see why offering trusted signing for individuals worldwide would come with certain challenges.
> Also, the passive surveillance has resulted in several high profile killers like LISK and Bryan Kohberger being caught. So as much bad as you think it does, there are clear cases where its helped crack decades old serial killings and put horrifically violent people in jail.
Isn't that true of almost every restraint on the state's power?
A lot of less intelligent people get very emotional about the state quartering soldiers in homes against the wishes of the homeowner. But if you've got nothing to hide, you've got nothing to fear. We may not know who the Zodiac Killer is but I can tell you one thing for sure - he didn't have four to ten infantrymen in his house, keeping track of his comings and goings. Given the obvious security benefits of having soldiers in your home, no rational person would object - unless they've got a meth lab in their basement. /s
You can run all the major CLI tools without a browser.
When they try to open a browser, they also print the URL to the console. Open that in your browser and go through an authentication flow; it'll end forwarding you to a localhost URL like http://127.0.0.1:8080/authorization-code/callback?code=XXXX&... which will fail.
Copy that callback URL, connect to your VM/docker container, and curl it.
The curl stage requires the agent make a call to auth.whatever-vendor.com so if it fails at this stage, check your VM/container network settings. And make sure you quoted the curl right so the & wasn't misinterpreted.
It'll then save a file at ~/.codex/auth.json or ~/.claude.json or similar, so you won't need to log in again. The secret in this file will periodically rotate, so you need to mount it read-write not read-only.
I used to have an uncle who did emergency oil well repair. He'd get a call from his boss, then he'd be on the next flight to whatever remote offshore drilling platform or exotic dictatorship had need of his services.
Apparently doing emergency repair work can be extremely well paid.
(His wife was fine with it, but when there's great inconvenience for the family balanced by great pay for the family, you've got to get paid)
For sure you can ID everyone. Nightclubs, music festivals and even airports do this sort of thing all the time.
You just need good organisation, plenty of security stations, and an atmosphere that rewards people who arrive early - checking a stadium's worth of IDs over the course of 2-3 hours rather than over the course of 20 minutes.
What you can't do is charge $20 for a glass of beer then expect people to arrive 2-3 hours before the game starts.
> Maybe it's not about the money. Maybe he does not want the negative consequences that come along with having a smartphone.
In my country right now there's a lot of hand-wringing about the impact of social media and smartphones on teenagers' mental health and education. We've got schools banning phones, and the government wanting to introduce age checks for social media. Infinite doomscrolling in your pocket, endless brainrot short-form videos, it's not healthy and we need to get smartphones out of the hands of the young.
So there are good reasons people might choose not to get a smartphone.
Then exactly the same government also proposed people wouldn't be allowed to work without a 'Digital ID Card' - making smartphones (and google/apple accounts) mandatory.
It's 2026, we've seen that free speech absoluters don't actually care about protecting all speech.
We've seen 'small government' and 'no government power over your life' supporters suddenly just fine with it when women's right to choose is taken away by the government. Or when the government wants to decide/legally enforce gender their gender definition.
We've seen the 'less government' people do nothing as the Feds trample local laws, illegally seize voter roles (voting is a states issue), attempts to inject federal requirements into elections and attach what is a large cost for some people to the right to vote.
So we're going to need more nuance than a disengenuous 1980 platitude on the topic.
These are all great arguments against a big federal nanny state. You’re just finally recognizing why it’s bad when the federal government doesn’t vote your way
It can't be solved, but you can choose different loopholes and privacy trade-offs.
Untraceable-but-single-use proof-of-age tokens? Good for privacy, but now that 14-year-old can get tokens from an 18-year-old friend for cash.
Proof tokens that only last a few minutes, or a three-way handshake between user, government and website? Harder to trade, but now the government's got a good guess about who's opening pornhub.
Requiring sites to keep audit records, to prove they really did the verification procedure? Wildly insecure, we don't want them storing passport photos. Requiring them to not keep audit records? Then they can skip or half-ass the checks.
Camera-based age estimation? Once again the 14-year-old can have an 18-year-old pass the check for them. Or a video game character creator or something. Scanning a government ID card? Better hope Dad never leaves his wallet unattended for 5 minutes. And not everyone has a passport or driver's license.
Age attestation from an electronic driver's license, plus face id biometric validation, with a secure element, trusted execution environment and code attestation? Congrats, now you've handed your national ID database to the world's largest adtech/tracking company. Hope you weren't trying to distance your nation from US tech dominance.
I've never seen the government try to make laws as damn bulletproof as this one "for our own good".
You'd think we were dealing with access controls for nuclear waste here, but it's actually as banal as preventing a kid from just liking a photo his friend took using an app.
It's insane seeing how this moral panic plays out.
> In the meantime a FOSS maintainer who is just trying to put the pieces in place to comply with the law (as written) got doxxed and harassed.
In my experience, when a country like Britain passes a censorship law, people in other countries like America don't enjoy being given the tools to comply with it, even if the tools are entirely optional.
Polymarket has $5 million of wagers on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?"
The toll Iran charges for safe passage is $2 million per ship, and at current prices such a ship would be carrying about $200 million of oil. Oh, and we live in a world where a single billionaire will happily spend $200 million to influence politics.
The polymarket number merely shows that nobody's paid to make it higher or lower yet.
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