This year is definitely the beginning of the end for American scientific leadership. The damage being done is incalculable.
The best and brightest simply aren't going to want to come to the U.S. for an uncertain future where they'll be harassed at the airport every trip and then defunded or deported at any time for "political" reasons (a.k.a. racism, bigotry, religion, ignorance and anti-intellectualism).
Amazingly, we're only 200 days into this administration.
We have 3 years, 5 months and 12 days left, assuming we still have free and fair elections in 2028.
For the next several years, the administration is going to continue to dismantle our country's foundations brick by brick, enabled by Congress and SCOTUS. The attack on immigrants is in full swing, but the total takeover of science, public education, universities and mass media is actually just beginning.
What exactly do you think will change? The administration is already ignoring the law with impunity. Unless there's a big enough swing so that impeachment and conviction is a reality, Congress will have essentially zero impact.
Around 40% of the country still supports the president unconditionally. They are truly ecstatic with what's happened so far. The other 60% are being gerrymandered so their majority status is inconsequential. If Republicans do lose the House, it'll most likely be by a small margin, and the current Congress will rush through a bunch of laws to be signed that will make the next one as useless as possible.
And even if there was in fact a huge swing allowing Congress to try and stop the White House's wrecking ball, the amount of damage between now and January 2027 will be monumental and irreversible.
Joisting for power between federal branches (and with states, historically) has been a constant in American democracy more often (most of its history) than not (1970s+).
> Around 40% of the country still supports the president unconditionally
Yes, such is the danger of personality cults in democracies.
> The other 60% are being gerrymandered so their majority status is inconsequential.
Gerrymandering has always been a finger on the scales of elections, and will continue to be, until such time as Congress puts a stop to it (though debatable they have the power). https://gerrymander.princeton.edu/
> the amount of damage between now and January 2027 will be monumental and irreversible.
I imagine FDR's ghost is spinning in his grave, with things to say about Hoover.
> Can you provide an example where they've ignored a Supreme Court ruling?
How about the case where the Supreme Court told the administration to obey a lower court's order and facilitate Kilmar Abrego Garcia's return to the US [1]? The Trump administration openly defied the Supreme Court's order for nearly 2 months (April 11 to June 6) [2][3]. Setting aside whether the "temporary" violation of a Supreme Court order has been legally resolved, the administration brought Garcia back to press (hypocritical and doubtful) human smuggling charges to justify deporting Garcia again, and a judge let Garcia stay in jail for longer otherwise necessary because the judge thought the administration would deport Garcia before he could have his trial [4].
"Facilitate" was a weasel word that the Supreme Court knew would allow the administration to play as it wished, hence why it was affirmed by this Court.
If the Supreme Court had wanted to order him back immediately, it would have done so.
The facts are that this administration has skated on and just over the line with regards to lower courts, especially in matters of immigration, but has yet to ignore a directive from the Supreme Court.
If you're aware of an actual example, feel free to provide it.
I could respond in detail to each pedantic item, but you seem knowledgeable enough to know them already, so here's a summary: There's plenty of non-SCOTUS laws that have been ignored. The gerrymandering is being nationally coordinated. Comparing Trump to Hoover is farcical and you know it.
The word "histrionic" is what really got me though. We're well past the stage where anyone deeply cynical about the state of things and the foreseeable future can be accused of histrionics. And we're way beyond any previous historical analogies.
My whole point is that the damage to the country is permanent. Whether it'll eventually destroy the Union has yet to be determined.
Histrionic: deliberately affected, overly dramatic or emotional
I.e. anyone who believes that adjectives suffice where facts fail
There are things that are not happening and things that are happening. Trying to phrase the former into the latter doesn't do anything but hasten a post-truth era.
What is it they say in America? "Oh sweet, summer child?"
Honestly and seriously: look at the abuse of power and its escalation. Consider the consequences to Trump if he lets the House flip. Impeachment again and this time removal really would seem likely.
Now consider, in all detached seriousness: why would a man who tried a coup and thinks he can disappear people to El Salvador let that happen?
Now consider that he's trying to force the creation of a new census that doesn't count illegal immigrants, which is obviously about denying the democrats seats, and he's fired someone for producing numbers he doesn't like and replaced them with "all new numbers".
It's not going to be the end of his interference, right?
The midterms, if they happen, will not flip the House. If they do, he will try to delay, confuse, challenge, set them aside, produce alternative results, claim massive fraud, or interfere with their certification. If he can't stop them, he will threaten them individually until they quit. (Don't say "he can't stop the election, under the constitution"; it's a meaningless phrase now)
You're not having a normal election in 2026.
Even if I turn out to be wrong, I really wish people would start acting as if predictions like these are entirely plausible. Because they are. He's moving much faster than critics expected, and yet he's doing all the things they expected.
Hence the push for a mid-decade census (likely illegal) and revised fascist-friendly electoral maps. Can't risk popular sovereignty overruling Nazi priorities.
Personally I'm not very confident even in the next free and fair election things will change materially. Trump is the public face but the reason he's in office and also has control of congress is because Americans voted that way. It's not very clear that if elections were held tomorrow, that the result would go any different.
But but but American Exceptionalism! Americans are the best and brightest! The rest of the world can't compete! /s
Those doing and supporting what's happening a) care only about power, b) honestly think they and America is superior, c) both and d) think this time is different assuming they are educated and know history.
Whether it's real or just poor communication a lot of the country felt like the scientific institutions had been weaponized against them. Maybe the constituents of those institutions even believed either making themselves an enemy of the public or creating PR indicating they were was moral but the practical reality of public institutions is that they must have the trust of the public or they will come to an end.
Nah, there was nothing "poor communication" about it. It was very well done bad faith communication from bad actors. It was intentional lies. This was not a fault of communication of these institutions. They can not match the lies machine from well founded and motivated political groups. And that is about it.
Don't forget the resentment the religious hold toward science over things like evolution and the big bang that are inconsistent with their superstitions. There's been a concerted effort by evangelical Christianity to undermine the place of science in our society, probably because when religion loses its explanatory power over the wondrous things we see in the world people turn toward the alternatives, like evidence-based explanations.
It must be nice to be in Trumpist lala land, where it's always someone else's fault.
Trust of our institutions, scientific and other, had been deliberately destroyed by anti-intellectual political hacks over the past few decades. Some from appealing to regressive religious fundamentalism, but much just shameless ignorant grandstanding of painting the complex world as unfair. And it's mostly those same hacks who are now supporting the wanton burning of our societal institutions while continuing to whitewash it as "conservatism".
Sorry, the fault here lays entirely with the fascists - most especially with the people supporting them who should have known better.
Really? Is that why Project Warp Speed was both an achievement for Trump and at the same time vaccines were produced too fast and hence unreliable? That is at the same institutions were a friend, when it fit the narrative and enemy, when it didn't fit the narrative. People who say - "Don't trust the government, they make terrible decisions" are now saying "Trust the government". What a turn around.
Hopefully people who have voted for this and defending this remember this as the beginning of the end of American exceptionalism. It's certainly not happening any time soon. Maybe decades later but these things will be remembered in the same way as Mccarthyism.
American exceptionalism has always been a weird delusion, I don't see that ending. USA not being a market leader in <whatever>, now that can end and it's starting to happen for sure.
This ends USA, full stop. Not this particular executive order, but his orders in general. It's been half a year and that orange turd has completely overtaken USA legislative branch with this "economic emergency", while bobbleheads in the Congress just signed it away voluntarily. And now he is taking preliminary shots at the judicial branch, trying to eradicate judges who aren't bending the knee. All the while testing through his minions if it would be possible to tear down constitution too and remain in power permanently.
See I think part of the problem is people keep complaining about "the rich" and then propose and implement policies that go after normal middle class Americans instead. A few decades of this and you have a social norm that flat out doesn't work for normal people so they just start torching things.
Totally agree, except nobody is torching things yet. This administration's blatant attack on the middle class in favor of the rich should have people rioting.
Trump governs literally as any corrupt leader in any poor country does since ages: he feeds the people with cheap, superficial lies that they like to hear (we call it, he lets them suck a pacifier) while secretly stuffing his mates with money and power.
But that happens in unprecedented amounts in a developed and organised country, maybe soon developing...
Strike in the Washington DC where people would not go home in the evening. Put up tents, tires, pavement and keep striking until it works. Also pick up 1 single most important item. Not Epstein, however satisfying that is to throw at MAGA their own comments. I think so called "economic emergency" which in completely unconstitutional should be such a topic and strike should continue until it is repelled. Secondary topic I think should be unconstitutional measure by the Congress, which they adopted in spring and which essentially blocks congressmen from voting on this so called "emergency". That shit how whole 2025 year is a single day, or whatever they have invented.
That is the only only way to stop dictatorship while it is still possible.
- science funding is controlled by the state (and thus politics) in many leading countries, especially China. Doesn't seem to hold them back
- the US pays people vastly more than other countries, and will continue to have the ability to fund expensive research more than others. Maybe it will regain the political will to do so in coming years
You're right that uncertainty is deadly to investment, and signing up for 5 years of a PhD is certainly an investment. But it's hard to see this turn into an actual brain drain, if only for lack of a better place to go.
In a completely isolated bubble I’d be inclined to agree that scientific research might not do so badly, but the current set of politics completely rejects generally-accepted scientific norms.
After all, why bother doing research when the guy ultimately responsible for choosing your funding will take a sharpie to any data you collect if it looks bad?
Probably not. Grants were always under political control, right? This is just shifting political control from one part of a government agency to another part of the government agency.
> Individual grants will also require clearance from a political appointee and "must, where applicable, demonstrably advance the President’s policy priorities."
> The order also instructs agencies to formalize the ability to cancel previously awarded grants at any time if they're considered to "no longer advance agency priorities."
Most of my friends got grants from industry. Relying on federal grants to build up a generation of grad students in any field seems like a recipe for disaster. This change might actually bring a higher standard of tax-payer funded research if it enables the public to have faster feedback mechanisms when research stagnates or is misaligned with the public interest.
I genuinely don't understand this. This is due to my lack of experience in University since I never went, and my experience with laboratories, since I've only ever been in one, much to the annoyance of my best friends girlfriend at the time, who was studying Chinook and their spawning behavior.
My understanding is the grants you're talking about are generally for small student salaries as they work on a given project simultaneously with their continued education. Is there not another way to fund these projects? Is there not a better way to engage students into these projects? I don't recall most students having a wide array of choices when it comes to taking on these opportunities.
Is this not a chance to improve a rather ancient and clumsy system?
> Is this not a chance to improve a rather ancient and clumsy system?
I seriously doubt that there is any will to improve the system.
> My understanding is the grants you're talking about are generally for small student salaries as they work on a given project simultaneously with their continued education.
Grants cover a much larger part of the work at labs. Basically, a grant could be paying anything except tenured salaries and administrative costs.
Grants are usually for projects. Projects may include a portion for postgraduate students, but also pay a lot of other things such as running costs for a lab, travel, conference fees, etc. The costs of running, say, a biology lab are very high (lots of equipment, need to employ technicians as well).
If you have access to statistics for the general population, you can forego the control group, I would think. But that requires doing the study in a country with a well run health care system and properly regulated medical records so that you can get these stats without privacy issues.
You can also use Canada, with the exception of access to medical records, to minimize all of the differences between populations in the USA and the control group.
Denmark has a very different vaccination schedule because they have exposure to many fewer "childhood diseases." Might seem like a small difference given the availability of 'properly regulate medical records without privacy issues" but these sorts of differences add up.
Problem #3 is relatively easy to address: shift from journals to conferences. Organizing fake conferences is a lot harder than setting up paper mill journals.
I can tell you from personal experience that organizing a "fake" conference is beyond trivial. All you need is a topic that is narrow enough that all of the attendees know and like each other. I was an attendee at several such conferences back when I made my living publishing papers, and I was astonished at how easy it was to publish bullshit as long as it was the right venue, and how borderline impossible it was to publish anything that I considered to have actual value. (In my career I published dozens of conference papers, but only one journal paper and one book chapter.)
In actual practice what I found was that the principle driver of publishing success has absolutely nothing to do with the quality of the work, it has to do with how much your reviewers think that you might some day be in a position to review a paper of theirs. This is the fundamental problem with peer review when: career success is measured by quantity of papers published, the resulting dynamic is governed by game theory, not scientific merit.
I get "invited" to fake or semi-fake conferences all the time. Also fake or semi-fake "awards". I just have a programming blog. I would not expect any other field to be any different.
Not really. I see many, many fake conferences adjacent to my field each year. I don’t really see why setting up one would be harder than creating a fake journal.
I think they mean predatory journals and conferences. Setting up a predatory journal costs nothing, whereas actually holding an in-person conference of any kind costs money.
A good time to repost about the famous VIDEA conference:
These conferences have fees, just like predatory journals. They tend to be held in dodgy places in otherwise touristy areas, and most of them are partly or fully online anyway. The cherry on the cake is that attendees can use them as holidays funded by their institution.
I don’t dispute that there are probably orders of magnitude more fake papers than fake conference presentations, just that shifting from journal articles to conference talks won’t help at all. If the incentives shift, current paper mills will just shift with the market.
From 1945 to about 2000, academia in the western world was slowly growing. That made the pool of positions not-quite-zero-sum, and way too many people went into it expecting a much more genial environment.
If the pool grows at the same rate as the academics who need money from the pool, it's zero-sum. If the pool were ever to grow more slowly, then it's a negative-sum game. That's when all hell breaks loose -- by many accounts, this is unfolding now.
In other words, the academics do not grow the pool through their own actions, as in private business. They are forever reliant on the kindness of strangers.
That's not quite right. Academics do grow the pool through public outreach and demonstrating value to companies which lobby the government to fund them, but since there is usually one big pool (such as the NSF budget), it is impossible for people to grow their own pool directly. It's closer to working at a large company, where your impact on earnings is next to nonexistent and your career is determined by the beliefs of the people around you about your impacts on them.
Negative sum is the worst outcome. Only the cheaters win in that scenario and they slowly eat the legitimate players, then the weak cheats so only the biggest cheaters remain. The entire pool is then tainted.
We have acquired a couple such companies and the people that survived that environment are some of the most toxic players you ever meet. They are also really good at the game so they immediately rise to power and begin to devour their next victim.
The president of the United States is literally fighting in court to get the authority to treat natural born newborns as aliens even though the plain letter of the United States Constitution says these babies are citizens.
In an environment like that, legal status doesn't mean shit.
Well, it does say that explicitly. Them arguing the sky is green doesn't make the sky actually green. If they win a court case by arguing the sky is green, that says something about the court, not about the reality.
All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.
>Them arguing the sky is green doesn't make the sky actually green.
They're arguing that the sky is blue, which the sky actually is.
>If they win a court case by arguing the sky is green, that says something about the court, not about the reality.
If they win a court case by arguing the sky is blue, and half of the political establishment rejects that, that says something about that half of the political establishment, not about the reality.
All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.
The argument is that certain overseas territories, foreign dignitaries, and illegal immigrants are "not subject to the jurisdiction thereof." The first two are not offered birthright citizenship, the latter is. If consistency is to be considered, illegal aliens should similarly not be offered birthright citizenship.
And you can be arrested for overstaying a visa. It used to be that after a process that does not include being swiped off the streets by masked thugs. Now we're doing it this way.
The "right of self determination" does not exist in the US constitution or law. It's a rhetorical slogan coined by Woodrow Wilson, and his idea of "self determination" came from growing up as a racist southerner who felt the South should have been allowed to self-determine a continuation of chattel slavery.
How this has anything to do with the immigrants in my city trying to live normal lives, perhaps you can explain.
You can't really enroll graduate students for a 5 year PHD project if their funding can be pulled at a moment's notice like this.