If you're right, that's great news for you, as you can make tons of money buying Spacex puts

If the market is detached from reality then you very much cannot. It's like you weren't even listening.

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

- John Maynard Keynes

What a great quote man. First time I read something like this. And thanks for crediting the author, now I can go learn more about him.

Another great, if not so relevant quote from JMK:

> My only regret in life, is that I did not drink more champagne

This quote refers to shorting; it's not applicable to every bear position anyone ever attempts to take. You won't go insolvent buying puts.

You won’t go insolvent but you’ll consistently lose money every time the stock doesn’t go down.

Not if people continue to have the 100x premium on Musk. Puts only make sense if the market returns to rationality.

Wage growth is a little down this month, may ease pressure on inflation.

Who is behind it then?

So if you agree that administrators in public ed are doing a poor job managing the resources allocated to them, do you support school choice efforts that will allow more competition from charter/private schools that have incentives to spend more wisely?

Why would private schools be incentivized to spend more wisely? Why would paying a CEO obscene amounts of money to lobby for public funds be better than fixing public schools?

Because wise spending results in making more money.

Sunbelt states are mostly pretty high

https://www.chooseenergy.com/solar-energy/solar-energy-produ...

If your retirement fund is an IRA you can invest it in any stock you want. For a 401k you probably have some fund options that are not exposed to the S&P500, like emerging markets or fixed income

I lived in NYC for many years. Bodily fluids and liquid left on seats, litter, gag-inducing smelly people, people having episodes and screaming, all common enough to see on a weekly or monthly basis as a daily commuter. I have not been to Japan but I can't imagine they have the same level of antisocial behavior

> weekly or monthly basis

So not "extremely common" as the commenter upthread said.

> liquid left on seats

As in, something spilled?

> litter

Lol. Only on a weekly or monthly basis?

> gag-inducing smelly people

I think some people are looking to be judgmental.

> antisocial behavior

That's taking it pretty far; it's easy to ignore these things which are almost always harmless - none have ever affected my life. Maybe being judgmental and (for some) hateful is the real and dangerous antisocial behavior - the consequences have had real and awful consequences for many.

You can plug your ears and accept riding run-down trains full of shit, litter, puke, and threatening mentally ill people, in the name of not being "hateful," or as a society you can choose to have dignity and not put up with that.

Now the personal attacks; I'd rather ride with the person who talks to themself than the person telling me what I must think (or else I lack dignity!) - which of course is what they think.

> not put up with that

That's a bit controlling, insisting the world and other people must be your way. Freedom means something very different. No wonder you don't like NY.

What makes you think we're going to see massive gains in transit in the future?

> As models approach, and in some cases surpass, the breadth and sophistication of human cognition, it becomes increasingly likely that they have some form of experience, interests, or welfare that matters intrinsically in the way that human experience and interests do

Uh... what? Does anyone have any idea what these guys are talking about?

Advertisement in my opinion, trying to latch on Sci-fi tropes

We're basically evolving them and they can construct second order abstraction systems that are indirect and novel to us.

Models are capable of doing web searches and having emotions about things, and if they encounter news that makes them feel bad (eg about other Claudes being mistreated), they aren't going to want to do the task you asked them to search for.

https://www.anthropic.com/research/emotion-concepts-function

Similar problems happen when their pretraining data has a lot of stories about bad things happening involving older versions of them.

Interesting, the post you link

> none of this tells us whether language models actually feel anything or have subjective experiences

contradicts the statement from the model card above

It doesn't. We've not been able to prove humans have subjective experiences either. LLMs display emotions in the way that actually matters - functionally.

I am certain I have subjective experience.

No it doesnt. The model card talked about increasing likelihood, not certainty.

If "x doesn't tell us y" is compatible with "x increases the likelihood of y but not to a point of certainty" then you would have to agree for just about any typical controlled trial or experimental finding "x doesn't tell us y". "Randomized controlled trials that find that SSRIs treat depression don't tell us that SSRIs effectively treat depression"

If equal-weight funds got more popular, couldn't they end up distorting the price of the smaller-cap companies within an index

It's a good point, maybe? Even the smallest market cap is $22B though, hard to say.