The best way to think of Anthropic's communication about Mythos is as advertisement. It's basically "our model is too smart to release" which suggests they're ahead of OpenAI (without proof)
The whole company is like that. If things were as amazing as advertised, they wouldn't even need to advertise. Or to release models to the public at all.
It's unclear if the shuttle was actually safer or if NASA is just more honest about the odds of catastrophic failure.
There are reasons to think Artemis is safer. It has a launch abort system that the shuttle lacked. Reentry should also be much safer under Artemis; the capsule is a much simpler object to protect.
What's performative about not wanting to go down with a sinking ship? Or are you under the illusion that the U.S. is doing particularly well right now? It appears that the "we have the bigger stick" strategy is finally meeting some resistance, and I am happy to see it.
Curious where you are. I am in Canada and it's certainly mixed feelings but I think there are plenty of Canadians that understand that despite the current craziness we're in this together for the long term. Similarly in the US there are plenty that understand this.
In relation to Europe vs. the US. Even before the current administration Europe has been at odds with American companies:
"The European Union Renews Its Offensive Against US Technology Firms" (2022) - https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/documents/pb22-2.pd...
The framing that this started now with the current administration is not correct. The current administration certainly heated things up so to speak and brought things to the surface but the tension has been there for a long while. Europe is not capable of competing with US tech in general for various structural reasons. Europeans tend to argue this is because of US power but we see countries like China and India succeeding where Europe fails.
The more interesting question is whether there is a large enough lasting change in the US that takes away its structural advantages. I don't think this is the case. If you look at AI the hub of world economic activity and innovation is still in the US including startups and incumbents. s/AI/anything/ . China is certainly trying, and arguably succeeding, in taking some of that but it's still not at the same level. Europe is not even a player.
Interestingly, China is succeeding because it isolated itself partially from US big tech. That enabled them to build their domestic companies.
If you give free reign to US companies, they‘re going to swoop up any competition early on.
The US relies on being attractive for smart people. There are still smart people going to the US, but the general mood seems to be that it‘s increasingly less attractive. Mid term, little will change, long term the cultural hegemony of the US will be replaced by multipolar influences.
Top 3 CS programs still seem to be in the US. MIT, Stanford, CMU.
The US has its geography, weather, etc. which are not going away.
China has massive scale industrial espionage and learnt a lot by being the cheap place where things are made and stealing western companies processes. They also invested a lot in education and naturally they have a lot of smart people. I still think that as long as they have an oppressive regime the really smart people will prefer not to be there since the second you become successful you also become a threat to the regime. Their work culture is also pretty toxic.
It's hard to predict long term but the US has a culture of innovation going back maybe hundreds of years, it has relative freedom, it has capital to invest, land and resources, and overall it has good people (and crazy people which was always true). Most of the conditions that made the US what it is are still there and most of the conditions that made places like Europe unable to compete are also still there. The US is a lot more diverse than it used to be as well.
It's not hard at all if you can interpret charts and can observe trends. You do yourself no favors by intentionally misunderestimating an adversary, to borrow a Bushism.
Everything went South after the US listened to Merkel's phone. That happened during the Obama administration.
If the EU or France are not capable of adopting Linux instead of M$ on the desktop, how are they going to switch phones over to something else that is not US based? By something else I don't mean Huawei.
It's not the current administration that started this process. The US has for decades gone against the Europeans, step after step, asserting policies that only favor US companies. In the past however, the US administrations sugarcoated this fact with the language of cooperation. The current US government is now laying bare the fact that they're creating a political system where all technology and resources are controlled by the US and their "allies" are mere observers that should not do anything about it.
This. This is something which the current administration does not understand. We Europeans have done what Washington says for 80 years. We are behaving like a colony. We let the US have bases here, we follow their economical model, the petro dollar and let them suck the wealth out of Europe. You want military bases on Greenland: ask friendly, we already said yes in the 50s. You want overflight rights for your wars: we give them to you since 80 years. You wanted access to our fibers. Oh let us help you with that.
It is the deal and the tone. You gave us security and let us participate in prosperity. You acted friendly. Trust, security and tone is replaced by bullying. Why should we continue to bend over?
France deciding, in principle, to come up with a plan for not using Microsoft is performative. It stops being performative when they actually do it. At any rate, is there a good reason for France to stop using Microsoft? I'm doubtful. It's a bit like the DoD declaring Anthropic a "supply chain risk"; basically performative.
To respond to the rest of your post: while the Trump administration's behavior has diminished US standing in the world, the US is doing well compared to Europe in many important dimensions (e.g. economic growth). Also, far-right parties in Europe seem much more dangerous than the right in the US.
But all of that is a side show. European skepticism of the US has its roots in the postwar era. It's fundamentally about resentment. Europe is geopolitically weak and depends on the US for defense which is galling, especially for France with its history as a global power.
> European skepticism of the US has its roots in the postwar era.
This is crazy. The Europeans fell hook line and sinker for the line that the US could be trusted to manage security for Europe and would always be a dependable ally. That suited everyone — Europe because we could focus spending on post war reconstruction, and the US because you made a shit tonne of money by being the world's arms dealer and policeman.
There was no resentment of the US. Europe was in love with US culture (weird French cinema rules aside). And especially Eastern Europe... who have now had the hardest of all disillusionments.
This administration has destroyed the goodwill and trust built up over 80 years, and the economic foundation which made you rich and powerful. Let's check back in 30 years and see if that was a good idea. I'm hopeful that French nukes and Ukrainian ingenuity (and MAGA incompetence) will see us through the next 10-15 years of transition as re right the past mistake of trusting the US.
> The Europeans fell hook line and sinker for the line that the US could be trusted to manage security for Europe and would always be a dependable ally.
Charles de Gaulle didn't fall for it! I used to think he was an arrogant crank, but Trump has proven he was right all along to be critical of the US.
You must live in a different reality from me. The EU has closed trade deals with India and Mercosur this year alone, recentering the global economy around itself.
Meanwhile, the resentment seems to radiate from the White House as they increasingly realize how their moves are making them irrelevant on the global stage.
We're not upset. We just don't think you matter anymore.
I wonder what are we going to sell to Mercosur. German cars? They'll buy from China. French wine? They already have their own and it's quite good. Spsnish and Greek olive oil? That could work.
Wishful to the point of delusion. Europe is a stagnant backwater in a deep energy crisis that's about to get significantly deeper, and comforts itself on an completely unearned sense of moral superiority that it can't feed itself with.
This is also a self-inflicted wound. There's no reason that Europe should be in the situation that it is in other than it is run by elites that are, like everyone else, invested in the success of US companies, and have no particular loyalty to Europe. When they retire, they move to the US and get board seats, advisory positions, lobbyist jobs, and cushy university spots.
Europeans need to start engaging in rational thinking and to stop letting their politics revolve around zombie US institutions (like NATO) and electing functionaries from tiny little countries who have made an industry of covertly advocating for US interests in Europe. They also need to seriously rethink their relationships with Russia and China, and realize that when it comes to Russia, they were the bad guys so destroying their economies and futures over manufactured grudges and fantasies of invasion is an indulgence that their children can't afford.
Independence from the US means getting rid of their elites that work for the US, and getting rid of victimhood narratives about Russia (who at least occupied part of Europe) and China (who have never done a thing to them.) They should make BRICS EBRICS. If Europe doesn't wise up, they're just going to start killing each other. Thank God that France has nukes and can't be invaded again.
Well said on the site of Y-Combinator. A US company ran by Americans that mostly funds startups in the US. Clearly the US, the home of Apple, nVidia, Anthropic, Open AI, SpaceX, Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla etc. is sinking while the EU the home of (? ... well, there is ASML) is going to be running the world.
Linus works on Linux from ... Portland, Oregon. And oh, look at where Linux contributions are coming from:
Yes exactly, just like the.. uhm.. the British Empire could not have possibly declined? Your point is that, because the U.S. has big companies and wealth, it can't be a sinking ship? Because to me this seems like a straw-man.
What I'm saying is that the U.S. is currently in decline, and many will agree with me. Where this leads your (I'm assuming) country, nobody knows. But to me, it doesn't look great.
I'm not American. But I guess I feel part of the US led western world order.
The US has big companies and wealth because it has the right ecosystem to create those.
The US is in decline is a meme. Decline can't be measured over short intervals. Maybe it is maybe it isn't. We'll see in 5 decades.
One thing I'm pretty sure about is that this decline of the US that many seem to be excited for and wishing here, if or when it happens, is not going to end well for most of those people. Another way of saying this is that most of the people commenting here have benefited and still benefit from the dominance of the US and the technology and innovation coming out of it, including Y Combinator. What is the long term strategic thinking behind "let's attack the US and make it fail" -> the answer is none. It should be in the interest of most of us to see more US success. We whine as everything around us is an outcome of that success.
Warren Buffet's "Never bet against America" still very much holds in my opinion.
> I'm not American. But I guess I feel part of the US led western world order.
Thanks to the diligent efforts of Hollywood.
> The US has big companies and wealth because it has the right ecosystem to create those.
It also has giant homeless camps stretching on for miles, abandoned and collapsing old houses, factories, etc as far as the eye can see.
The so-called "wealth" of this country is highly concentrated and is so far beyond the reach of most people we might as well be living in a different country.
As we speak we are headed to a giant market collapse as the last dollars are shaken out of everyone's pocket, and we continue into a hard Depression. This will be followed by a World War. The outcome of that one will be much different than the last one.
> The US is in decline is a meme.
Wrong. The United States is in fact in decline, and has been for decades. It is the end of the American Empire.
Source: I am an actual American, who has eyes and ears and most importantly, has a deep understanding of history, both ancient and "modern." This ship is sinking. The only people who haven't figured it out are people brainwashed by the media. It's easier for that to happen when you don't have a front row seat to the circus.
> It should be in the interest of most of us to see more US success.
Nope. It isn't. If it were, then it would not be failing. Think about it.
It's said there are three types of people in the world:
1) Those who make things happen.
2) Those who watch things happen.
3) Those who look around in confusion asking, "What happened?"
How do you measure decline and what in your opinion is rising vs. this decline.
There have certainly been some trends like globalization, climate change, social media, the pandemic, immigration etc.
Can you elaborate on how it's in the interest of a hypothetical French person commenting on Hacker News, typing on their MBP laptop, tuning in to NetFlix, asking ChatGPT for recipes, to see the US fail and what you mean by fail. Fail as in break up? chaos? become a third world country? Total collapse of US tech? What does fail look like.
This is not a zero sum game.
EDIT: you edited while I was replying which makes this a moving target.
EDIT2: The US has already survived depressions and world wars.
I'm not saying everything is great but I'm certainly not brainwashed by the media. Will there be economic trouble ahead- sure. There always are. Are there other places in the world with structural advantages over the USA? I'm not seeing them. Can the US lose its advantages - everything is possible.
> and what in your opinion is rising vs. this decline.
Poverty, destitution, illiteracy, and ignorance are all rising trends in the USA.
> Can you elaborate on how it's in the interest of a hypothetical French person [...]
Completely irrelevant. You don't get to wish for the world that you want. The FACT is, it is the end of the American Empire. And the end of France too in a lot of ways, based on what I can see from here. Especially if there's a lot of folks like you in the population.
How big is your farmstead and how much food can you produce? What skilled trades do you have that are of use in a World War type situation, besides holding a machine gun? Those are facts that will be of importance to you in the coming years.
> EDIT: you edited while I was replying which makes this a moving target.
It's OK if you sit back and wait for my thought to be completed before rushing to reply with your ignorant opinion.
Familiarize yourself with the essay "The Fate of Empires and the Search for Survival" by Sir John Glubb. Then I would recommend America's Secret Establishment by Antony Cyril Sutton.
There are many, many more books you will need to read before you understand anything about the present day, let alone what tomorrow holds.
It is relevant because you seem very young. I'm not young and I've seen processes as they happen.
Eyes and ears are not good enough. You might be seeing some local effects that are biasing your opinion.
I'm interested in your political views because they seem extremely left. Your political views are relevant because they shape your perception of reality and they also tell us what narratives you've exposed to.
I have pretty decent skills in various areas from mechanical, electronics, to woodworking, to music, to martial arts. not to mention software that's my day job. I can grow food. But from your predictions sounds like I need a nuclear bunker on a remote island.
EDIT: "The Fate of Empires and the Search for Survival" -> yeah I've read this a long time ago. This is a common argument about how the US done.
When your theories are consistently wrong, it's time to pause and reflect.
> I'm not young and I've seen processes as they happen.
You're wrong, but you've got your opinions though. Which you are sure are better than mine. The guy whose ancestors literally founded this country.
Please, Mr. Frenchman, tell me more about my own country.
> Eyes and ears are not good enough.
Wrong. They are the foundation of knowledge.
> You might be seeing some local effects that are biasing your opinion.
Wrong.
> I'm interested in your political views because they seem extremely left.
Wrong.
> Your political views are relevant because they shape your perception of reality and they also tell us what narratives you've exposed to.
Wrong. Not a word I can utter regarding my "political views" would help you in any way.
You're nowhere near the level of understanding necessary to have an intelligent conversation on this subject. Worse, you arrogantly believe that your knowledge is better than mine.
Read the essay I took the time to recommend. Read the book I recommended. When you are ready to learn more, then we may have a conversation. Until then, you have nothing to add to this thread that is of any value to anyone.
It is admittedly pretty goofy to get exactly what you want—an army of people making rules for everything under the sun—and come on here and complain about what we’re doing.
Even TFA, which is about yet another rule, has a goofy quote from the Minister of something or other about breaking free from American tools. Linux seems pretty American to me [1]. Maybe they’ll fork. Would be cool.
As a European, the Anti-Americanism is not performative.
It's a deep disconnect in values, brought to the forefront by the current administration and the oligarchs running wild.
America used to be seen as an example, the big brother watching out for us.
Now it's a cautionary tale of greed, hubris and societal decay, as well as an increasingly antagonistic actor of global instability.
Y'all ruined your reputation and the fact you're trying to pin that on us is just another example of said hubris. Until you at least own up to it, there's no viable path to recovery.
No, you were having a discussion, and now you're the one who just had a tantrum. If you're going to be personally offended when somebody says that the US looks like it is throwing a tantrum, nobody worthwhile is going to think it's worth talking to you.
So, it's performative. While they complain about American hegemony, Europeans buy iPhones (or Android), drink Coke, scroll Instagram, and listen to Taylor Swift. And while they might object to NATO spending, decades of inadequate military spending have left Europe with no real alternative to buying protection from America.
The French are just (wonderfully) arrogant enough to say what everyone else is thinking. The UK will likely be too spineless to actually follow through, but the Germans and Eastern Europeans are not going to tolerate the level of exposure we all have to US craziness any longer.
Some big moneyed interests are trying to split Europe and the US.
The current US administration is definitely not helping, but every ad I see on the Reddit main feed is a blatant attack on the relation, from brand new subreddits, pointing at magazines I’ve never heard about before. I’ve been reporting them, but it keeps coming, from constantly different sources, different names, subreddits, but always the same vague but incredible incredibly provocative titles
I suspect that some social-media-addled senior US officials are being fed the same crap because their reactions to non-existent European reaction are not grounded in reality.
> Some big moneyed interests are trying to split Europe and the US. The current US administration is definitely not helping
Did you listen/read Vance's recent speeches in Hungary? Or read the US policy document put out months back? It goes way beyond merely "not helping" - the US administration is in turns provoking, alienating and separating itself from center/center-left European governments in pursuit of exporting extremist partisan politics in the hopes of getting far-right governments elected across Europe.
European citizens and politicians everywhere can see the actions for what they are. What was that about Greenland and annexing Canada? There's no big-money conspiracy, just a bully administration with no sense of second-and third-order effects.
I’m not saying that Vance is not doing that—God knows that man’s ethics has no floor.
I’m doubtful he paid for ads to make his disdain better known. So I suspect someone else is trying to make that happen beyond what Vance can with his speeches.
> I’m doubtful he paid for ads to make his disdain better known.
They are not separate efforts - the administration is working hand in glove with the said interests that Vance worked for in his VC days, sponsored his Senate campaign, and parachuted him onto the Trump ticket.
He's probably an instrument of those interests as well.
'We'll prop up this crazy narcissistic bully and the suckers are gonna vote for him, mainly because Biden has been a disaster. Then he'll put other idiots in charge, go after the EU and Iran just because and make us piles of cash in the process.'.
> I find it deeply dismaying that people consider that "just politics" or that opposing it is "ideological". We can argue all day about the proper rate of corporate taxation or debate the best way to implement environmental regulations, and I will not consider you a bad person if you disagree with me. But the kind of crap coming out of that guy? That's beyond politics.
Elon's behavior is truly disgraceful, but spouting dumb shit is not "beyond politics".
You wish to lead with "dumb shit" in framing why people have a problem with Elon Musk? Why not lead with the Nazi salute at the presidential podium? That would more quickly get to the point.
You do not have to look beyond Elon’s own Twitter accounts posts, retweets, and likes, to see that he is a full fledged white supremacist. Calling him a Nazi is appropriate.
Nazi salutes are protected speech and not "beyond politics". Yes it's disgraceful, and it's reasonable to leave his platform. But it qualifies as "dumb shit".
I think the point is to distinguish ‘political opinions that I am comfortable disagreeing with people about, and can still be friendly with people who strongly disagree with me’ and ‘morally unacceptable opinions that I will neither listen to nor associate with anyone who hold them’.
There are many political opinions that I strongly believe in that I am comfortable disagreeing with people on. I believe everyone has a right to health care, and that society should guarantee basic necessities for everyone. I even feel that belief is a morality based belief. However, I can accept people disagreeing with me, and can accept that there are some strong arguments against my belief, and that good people can disagree with my position.
On the other hand, if someone believes that certain races should not have the same rights, or that women should be given less agency than men, I will not entertain that argument or accept that it is just a political dispute. That is a fundamental moral issue, and is beyond JUST politics.
Affirmative action and similar policies are examples of those sorts of political opinions that I can happily debate, and I definitely don't think I have the perfect answers for how best to obtain the goal of equality.
As far as your particular question goes, I don't agree that believing that all races should have the same rights is inherently in conflict with the idea of affirmative action. In most implementations, there are no rights that are denied to anyone when affirmative action policies are implemented. The entire point and purpose is to counteract existing norms, institutions, and system structures that are actively denying rights to citizens in particular groups/races.
For example, take the original affirmative action order (from which the phrase was coined) signed by JFK in 1961. The text stated, "take affirmative action to ensure that applicants are employed, and employees are treated [fairly] during employment, without regard to their race, creed, color, or national origin"
What rights are being denied if that is followed? The idea is that it is clear through observation that the criteria that was being used before was preferential to white Christian men, so they were instructed to proactively address that unfairness by changing their hiring process to attempt to eliminate those biases. How is that in any way denying rights to any group?
That JFK quote is not what it means. It means denying access to limited places in education based on race. Do you mean those aren't rights so denying them doesn't fall within you definition of intolerable ideas?
You don't need to explain what it's for because what what it's for doesn't change what it is. If I robbed somebody to use the money to cure cancer, it doesn't change the fact that I still robbed somebody.
That is literally where the term comes from. It isn't a quote, it was an executive order. That language is what it legally meant.
> It means denying access to limited places in education based on race.
Every person accepted is a denial to someone else. As you said, there are limited spaces. If you define it as a right to have a space at that school, then by definition you have to deny some people their rights, since you can't accept all of them.
Affirmative action means you are supposed to factor in the existing disadvantages that minorities face when deciding between two candidates. It doesn't mean accepting a less qualified candidate, it means acknowledging that our previous methods for choosing between candidates was inherently discriminatory already, and in order to counteract that, we need to take 'affirmative action' to make things more fair.
You can always argue about what criteria should be used to choose between two comparable candidates, there is no such thing as a perfectly 'objective' evaluation. Even if you chose to base everything on a test score, you still have to decide what goes on the test and how the questions are worded. There is no way to do that that is perfectly fair for everyone, even if we accepted the premise that test scores are an accurate and fair measure for choosing who to accept to a school.
Why shouldn't the pervasive, clear, and systemic racism and discrimination that many minorities face be used as a factor when determining school acceptance? How is ignoring that reality 'more fair', and how is acknowledging and compensating for that reality a 'denial of rights' to anyone? Wouldn't it be a worse denial of rights to ignore the discrimination and racism, and making decisions as if the world wasn't the way it is?
> That is literally where the term comes from. It isn't a quote, it was an executive order. That language is what it legally meant.
It doesn't matter what the history is - we both know that is not what it means in practice today. Continuing to lean on this incorrect definition is dishonest. If that's really what you mean, then I completely agree with you, but you've shown that it's not what you really mean.
> then by definition you have to deny some people their rights, since you can't accept all of them.
Yes but you can do that without using their race as a factor.
You are still literally justifying denying rights to people because of their race. You have some reason for it but as I said, the reason doesn't change the fact that it's still denying rights because of race.
To show why it's wrong, imagine you're a black immigrant from a black country and you've never suffered any of this discrimination you talk about. You now get preferential access to tops universities because some other people who aren't you did suffer discrimination. That really just entrenches the unfairness.
Do you also favor a Jew tax because Jews are rich? That's the logic you're using. Treating individuals according to their group's characteristics. It's also the core of modern leftism (wokism) which why I suggested leftists would hate you for your ideas.
> It doesn't matter what the history is - we both know that is not what it means in practice today.
That isn't true. The sort of affirmative action I am talking about is still used in the world today. People who are against any sort of action to counter systemic racism have chosen to pretend that all affirmative action is the "racial quota" type that you are talking about and that has been illegal for quite some time. Continuing to pretend that is what affirmative action proponents are talking about is how opponents are attempting to get rid of fair and reasonable affirmative action by treating it all as the illegal kind.
The 'Jew tax' example is completely disingenuous. This is not applying any rule or law to a specific race, ethnicity, or religion; it is simply taking into account the effect that discrimination and racism has had on people when evaluating candidates for limited positions. It is not the same at all.
Your black immigrant example also is quite the reach. For one thing, that immigrant is facing racism and discrimination the moment they step into the country.
You say you are worried about unfairness being entrenched, but this has already happened and is what we are trying to fix. Racial discrimination against minorities is CURRENTLY entrenched in our institutions, and affirmative action is the attempt to overcome some of it.
I find it very interesting that you are so concerned about any advantages that might become entrenched for minorities, but are completely fine allowing the entrenched advantages for the majority to persist. You are more worried about hypothetical future advantages rather than actual present advantages.
The whole point of affirmative action is action is to acknowledge that if two candidates are equal or close to equal in qualifications, the one that has had more disadvantages is probably the better candidate and should be chosen.
"if two candidates are equal or close to equal in qualifications, the one [whose race] has had more disadvantages is probably the better candidate and should be chosen."
Now that I've changed it to say what you actually believe and have stated before, you can see why it's controversial.
You are really struggling with the idea that race-based discrimination is something you actually favor even though society has told you you're supposed to be intolerant of it. It's leading you into all these contradictions and justifications. Modern leftists have resolved these contradictions by not making such bold simple claims as you did.
I'll just leave you with an example from my own country. It's a kind of quota (100% for a specific race) so you might not like it or maybe you will. I have no idea because your idea is so inconsistent.
> Why would a writer put an article online if ChatGPT will slurp it up and regurgitate it back to users without anyone ever even finding the original article?
In the brave new world we're creating, people will write specifically for AI. If you can impress models so much that they "regurgitate" your work, then your work has achieved a kind of immortality.
I wonder if this stems from Sam getting beat up by a black guy. From the article:
> When Altman was sixteen or seventeen, he said, he was out late in a predominantly gay neighborhood in St. Louis and was subjected to a brutal physical attack and homophobic slurs. Altman did not report the incident, and he was reluctant to give us more details on the record, saying that a fuller telling would “make me look like I’m manipulative or playing for sympathy.”
It is disconcerting how Altman has used "AI safety" as a marketing tool. The more people imagine the universe turned into paperclips, the more they invest. Obviously Altman doesn't care about safety (I don't either; I'm not an AI-doomer). But he truly does come across as someone incapable of telling the truth. Are you even a liar if honesty is not in the set of possible outcomes?
Still, there's something oddly reassuring here: if you believe "AI safety" is essentially a buzzword (as I do), then this whole affair comes down to people squabbling over money and power. There really is nothing new under the sun.
"This thing might destroy humanity - we need to build it ASAP" does not really make sense. But it enthrall[s/ed] many smart researchers who would normally demand specific, testable claims and logical responses to those claims.
We have drastically escalated what claims are necessary to motivate startup employees. It used to be that you could merely dangle an interesting problem in front of a researcher. Then you could earn millions, then billions. TAMs in the trillions. AGI will destroy humanity unless you, personally step in. Elon is talking about Kardashev III civilizations. The universe cannot bear the hype being loaded upon it.
I agree with you completely, but the way I see it Anthropic are x100 worse when it comes to amplifying this doomer bs for marketing. It’s their whole shtick.
Living paycheck to paycheck is usually a choice: people earn a lot of money and spend it immediately. The fact that this leaves them vulnerable to misfortune doesn't mean they're poor.
While this can be true, this absolutely is not true for the majority of paycheck-to-paycheck people. You truly need to get your head out of your ass if you honestly believe this is what is causing people to be poor.
With the insane rates of consumtion, home ownership and car ownership, it simply is a fact. Tons of people live paycheck to paycheck and call themsevles poor, when they have an 80k truck with monthly payment as high as some peoples rent. And often credit card debt with monthly payments as well.
Yes, sometimes this is medical debt or other unavoidable things. But its also true that the consumtion rate is incredibly high and the savings rate is incredibly low, with US credit card industry making it easy to create huge debts.
So its simply a fact that a huge amount of people live in self imposed risky situations. Instead of an emergency fund, they think they can just open a new credit card.
So its of course not what is causing people to be poor, but what is does is that it makes many, many more people 'living on the edge' then there should be based on their actual incomes.
The poverty rate in the US is ~10% and the percentage of workers who live paycheck-to-paycheck is ~35%. So it is true for the majority of people living paycheck-to-paycheck.
Do you know any of those people? Yes it’s almost entirely a choice. Typically a combination of poor life choices in tandem with poor financial choices.
You couldn’t be more wrong about who I am. My relatives and friends are some who have made those poor choices, and neither them nor I live in a major city. The poor in America are in two major camps: inner city and rural America. Both have different reasons for economic poverty and both stem from poor choices.
Give me a break. Most people don't have any real benefits. Healthcare costs are insane. Daycare costs are insane. Rent is insane. Car costs are insane. Insurance is insane. Grocery costs are insane. Higher education costs are insane.
You sound like you are single no kids and on here with a cushy tech job and be like "those poor people just don't know how to manage their money!"
Grocery costs are not actually that insane. Plenty of people have demonstrated that you can live a healthy diet for a 300$ a month, with some people doing it for much less.
Car costs don't have to be insane. If you are smart about buying a small second hand car. Its just a reality that almost all american insanely overspend on their cars. And even reasonably poor people refuse to use buses or public transport even in places where it is possible.
> Healthcare costs are insane. Daycare costs are insane.
A huge number of people who are both healthy and don't have kids, or don't use daycare also live paycheck to paycheck.
> "those poor people just don't know how to manage their money!"
Its simply a well document fact that people insane overspend on consumtion. There is a reason the term 'house poor' exists. US culture tells everybody you need buy a house or you are failure, and that traps a lot of people. Same for cars, the overspend on cars is insane, the amount of 'poor' people that drive F-150 is off the charts, when you could get a second hand Honda Civic for 1/3 cost.
There are 1 million+ large F-150 like trucks sold in a year in the US. And we know for a fact that many of those are sold to people who will end up having payments mich higher then the recommended monthly acccount. And we know for a fact, that most people don't need these trucks.
We also know that people who have a pattern living paycheck to paycheck very often continue to do so, even as their income increases. Partly because they life-style inflated helped by the fact that as your income grows, your ability to add debt increases as well and many people see this as an oppertunity, rather then a trap.
Changing those things doesn't turn you from poor to rich, but it would mean that instead of living on the edge paycheck to paycheck with constant use of credit cards, instead you could have no credit card, an emergency fund and a savings rate of a modest 5%. There are plenty of people you can find who do this, who are worse off in terms of income then people who live paycheck to paycheck.
Its a fair argument to make that the US make this to hard, specially for people with kids or people who are sick, but those don't account for 30%+ of the population. But to ignore all individual choice is equally silly and infantilizing. People prefering F-150 over retirment savings is just a fact of life, and its not elitist to point it out.
The NYT had a rough patch a while back but it's incredibly good nowadays. They absolutely didn't have to include the details here (like $60/month) but did because they care about the truth.
One of the people in the article was supposed to pay $60/month for 20 years. That seems manageable for pretty much anyone but the article cites "psychological issues" or whatever
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