It makes sense that US wage is growing if you look at the macroeconomic environment. Money is flowing into US at an unprecedented rate due to:
a.) Fed raising interest rates to a normal level. Government bonds are now earning close to some of the faster developing countries, without the risks.
b.) Brexit impacting the growth of EU. Germany narrowly avoids recession....for now. But grew only 1.5% in 2018. There's still the matter of a possible US tariff on EU automobiles. And Italy/Greece/Spain debts are still a thing.
c.) Chinese economy is crumbling. GM dropped crashed 15% in China in 2018. Ford dropped 36%. iPhone sales dropped 13%. Louis Vuitton dropped 20%. Overall car sales dropped 13%. Stock market dropped 22%. Real estate sales in January 2019 dropped 44%.
d.) Asian countries impacted by China's fall. South Korea's export to China dropped 14% in 2018. Japan dropped 8%. Taiwan dropped 10%. Singapore dropped 8%.
e.) Uncertainties and high debt ratio in developing countries, prompting money to seek safe harbor. Tariff and protectionism impacts.
I don't know how C) fits in the narrative. I think we could flush this out a little more.
Global economies are linked. If China isn't doing well, there's a risk that could spill over into other countries (point D), and that includes the US.
Are we saying that the US is doing well, but China is doing poorly because, all else equal, if the China-US trade discussions do not end well, it harms China more than it harms the US? It would certainly hurt both economies. Costs for goods would rise in the US. US Consumers buy less, consumer confidence slides, 70% of economic activity is consumer spending, etc.
It fits the narrative of US doing better than everyone else, thus money is flowing in.
There was a study done (can't find the link atm) regarding the impact of the tariffs on US consumer goods, and what they found was that the impact on US goods were negligible. The Chinese suppliers usually ate the tariff cost, which cuts into their margin. This in turn either bankrupts the company - because the private enterprise in China has been suffering from massive debt and government preferences for state owned enterprises - or it prompts the company to move the factories to Vietnam or other places.
> Chinese economy is crumbling. GM dropped crashed 15% in China in 2018. Ford dropped 36%. iPhone sales dropped 13%. Louis Vuitton dropped 20%.
Doing better than a "crumbling economy" doesn't mean you're doing stellar. That's setting the bar very low, and then saying "see, we beat it". It isn't necessarily confidence-inducing, even it is better than the others.
Higher tariffs would make it possible to reduce other taxes, and that would help the economy. With lower taxes and more jobs, US consumers buy more, consumer confidence rises, etc.
a.) Fed raising interest rates to a normal level. Government bonds are now earning close to some of the faster developing countries, without the risks.
b.) Brexit impacting the growth of EU. Germany narrowly avoids recession....for now. But grew only 1.5% in 2018. There's still the matter of a possible US tariff on EU automobiles. And Italy/Greece/Spain debts are still a thing.
c.) Chinese economy is crumbling. GM dropped crashed 15% in China in 2018. Ford dropped 36%. iPhone sales dropped 13%. Louis Vuitton dropped 20%. Overall car sales dropped 13%. Stock market dropped 22%. Real estate sales in January 2019 dropped 44%.
d.) Asian countries impacted by China's fall. South Korea's export to China dropped 14% in 2018. Japan dropped 8%. Taiwan dropped 10%. Singapore dropped 8%.
e.) Uncertainties and high debt ratio in developing countries, prompting money to seek safe harbor. Tariff and protectionism impacts.
f.) lastly, US is growing at a healthy 3% in 2018