Submissions from longbets.org

		By December 31, 02026, autonomous vehicles will be banned from public roadways (2021) (longbets.org)
		9 points by 1970-01-01 3 months ago \| past \| 8 comments
		In 2002, Mitch Kapor bet $20k that no AI would pass the Turing Test before 2029 (longbets.org)
		2 points by aleda145 5 months ago \| past \| 1 comment
		LongBets 1: By 2029 no computer will have passed the Turing test (2002) (longbets.org)
		3 points by martincmartin 9 months ago \| past
		By 2035 there will be at least one protest about turning off an AI (2023) (longbets.org)
		2 points by Mistletoe 10 months ago \| past \| 1 comment
		Long Bets: The Arena for Accountable Predictions (longbets.org)
		1 point by Olshansky on Jan 28, 2025 \| past
		By 2029 no computer will have passed the Turing Test (2002) (longbets.org)
		2 points by simonebrunozzi on Dec 15, 2022 \| past
		By 2029 no computer / “machine intelligence” will have passed the Turing Test (longbets.org)
		2 points by dane-pgp on June 13, 2022 \| past \| 2 comments
		Longbet: By 2027, software will be metered/sold by the second (longbets.org)
		79 points by collegeburner on Feb 27, 2022 \| past \| 118 comments
		Long Bets: The Arena for Accountable Predictions (longbets.org)
		2 points by DenverCode on May 8, 2021 \| past
		By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer (2006) (longbets.org)
		59 points by breck on April 1, 2021 \| past \| 98 comments
		Warren Buffett's bet against hedge funds at the Long Now Foundation (2008-17) (longbets.org)
		110 points by mooreds on Feb 28, 2021 \| past \| 129 comments
		Long Bets (longbets.org)
		1 point by yunruse on Dec 30, 2020 \| past
		Longbets: A bioerror will lead to one million casualties by Dec 2020 (longbets.org)
		137 points by emmelaich on Dec 10, 2020 \| past \| 193 comments
		Long Bets (longbets.org)
		3 points by elsewhen on Dec 8, 2020 \| past
		Long Bets: The Arena for Accountable Predictions (longbets.org)
		2 points by aaossa on July 29, 2020 \| past
		Long Bets (longbets.org)
		3 points by _zhqs on July 19, 2020 \| past
		The Arena for Accountable Predictions (longbets.org)
		2 points by gballan on Oct 10, 2019 \| past
		In 2027, at least 7 out of the top Tiobe languages will be Tree Languages (longbets.org)
		2 points by breck on Sept 24, 2019 \| past \| 8 comments
		Long bet: governments will recognize the human right of mobility (longbets.org)
		1 point by jobigoud on Aug 8, 2019 \| past
		Large Hadron Collider Will Destroy Earth (longbets.org)
		3 points by tosh on Sept 17, 2017 \| past
		On the Record: Long Bets (longbets.org)
		1 point by ZeljkoS on Sept 14, 2017 \| past
		Long Bets (longbets.org)
		2 points by dedalus on March 5, 2017 \| past
		“A profitable video-on-demand service aimed at consumers by 2010.” (longbets.org)
		2 points by refrigerator on Jan 4, 2017 \| past
		Buffett vs. Protege LLC: Over 10-year period S&P 500 will outperform hedge funds (longbets.org)
		2 points by koolba on May 17, 2016 \| past
		“A profitable VOD service will offer up to 5M subscribers by 2010” (2002) (longbets.org)
		1 point by shubhamjain on Jan 30, 2016 \| past
		By 2029 no computer or “machine intelligence” will have passed the Turing Test (longbets.org)
		55 points by fhinson on March 29, 2015 \| past \| 79 comments
		Long bets (longbets.org)
		4 points by cr4zy on Dec 14, 2014 \| past
		A list of fascinating predictions from Longbets.org (longbets.org)
		2 points by nav on Oct 22, 2014 \| past
		Bet: “By 2016, China will announce having more gold in reserve than Germany.” (longbets.org)
		2 points by rthomas6 on Jan 31, 2013 \| past
		By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes (2002) (longbets.org)
		3 points by kmfrk on Nov 28, 2012 \| past
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